Multifamily Holding Strong!

Multifamily Holding Strong!

The national apartment market strength is not slowing down though many predicted it would. As national effective rent growth reached a 35 month high in September, occupancy remained above 95 %.

September’s effective rent growth of 4.3%, the strongest since the 4.4% of October 2011, is a 22-basis-point (bps) increase from August 2014′s 4.1% and a 131-bps difference from September 2013′s 3.0%.

Year-to-date (YTD) effective rent growth decreased by 2 bps to 5.5% in September, which is not surprising given the trends of the recovery period. YTD rent growth has peaked in August or September during the past four years and then declined somewhat before the end of the year.

 Meanwhile, YTD effective rent growth was stronger than any other post-recession year for the sixth straight month and is still stronger than the 5.2% recorded for the first nine months of 2010 and 2011.

National occupancy declined by 10 basis points from August’s 95.2% to 95.1%, the second highest rate since Axiometrics started reporting on a monthly basis in April 2008.

Historically, occupancy peaks in August or September, so the market appears to be following its seasonal pattern, but at a higher level.

This apartment cycle – which began in 2010 –  is already longer than the last one (2004 -2008), and the market continues to perform strongly. The apartment sector’s strength is surprising to many analysts, especially so deep into the current cycle.

The main factors driving this cycle’s second peak include the growing number of prime renters, those between 20-34 years old, and the fact that these renters are unwilling or unable to purchase homes.

The population in the prime renter cohort is larger than in the last cycle. Also, the home ownership rate has decreased from the last cycle. The prime renter age group is either not willing to or not able to purchase a home.

Ten years ago, the prime renter age group population (red bars in the chart below) was smaller. This cohort was also more interested in owning homes.

Another reason for the spike in rent growth at the beginning of the current cycle is that supply and demand were misaligned. Rent growth really started to pick up when the economic recovery began and job growth accelerated. Meanwhile, little, if any, new apartment supply was being delivered. Now that new units are being delivered, job growth and rent growth are more in balance.

-Axiometrics Inc.

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Regards, Michael Hon, REALTOR®CEO, The Iron Eagle Realty Team
Associate Broker, Silvercreek Realty Group
Certified Short Sale Specialist®
Investment Property Consultant
Direct: 208.919.0458 Office: 208.939.9033 Fax: 208.514.1422
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